Advanced GIS modelling reveals declining forests, rising temperatures and increasing seismic risks in Northeast Hill region
Researchers from Nagaland University and PNG Government PG College Ramnagar have identified alarming patterns of environmental degradation in Kohima district using advanced Geographic Information System (GIS) modelling and remote sensing technologies.
The study provides critical scientific insights into the fragile geo-ecological conditions of India’s North East Hill region, highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient planning and sustainable land management.
Declining Natural Landscapes, Rising Human Pressure
Published in December 2023 in Springer Nature journal Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, the research shows a significant decline in natural landscapes over the past two decades. Forests, scrublands and water bodies reduced from 93.93% to 81.86%, while built-up areas, agricultural land and wasteland expanded due to increasing human activity.
The study links these changes to rapid urbanisation, deforestation, shifting cultivation and climate change—factors that are intensifying risks such as landslides, floods and extreme weather events.
Temperature Rise and Rainfall Decline
The researchers also documented a steady rise in average temperatures in Kohima at approximately 0.13°C per year, accompanied by declining annual rainfall and fewer rainy days. These climatic shifts are expected to further stress ecosystems and local livelihoods.
Seismic Activity Adds to Fragility
The analysis of earthquake records between 1982 and 2022 revealed more than 1,100 seismic events in Kohima district, averaging around 27 micro-earthquakes annually. Most were linked to tectonic faults and geological lineaments, increasing the region’s vulnerability to erosion, landslides and slope instability.
Integrated GIS Approach Strengthens Findings
The research team used an integrated GIS database modelling system covering three key modules—Geodiversity Informatics, Land Use Informatics and Climate Informatics. This multi-layered approach enabled a comprehensive assessment of geological structures, vegetation cover, land-use changes, rainfall patterns and ecological habitats.
According to the researchers, the region is facing three interconnected forms of degradation: geodiversity, ecological and climatic—together amplifying environmental risks.
Call for Policy Action and Sustainable Planning
Vice-Chancellor Jagadish K. Patnaik said the study offers “valuable insights for policymakers, planners and stakeholders” to enable informed decision-making for sustainable development in the Northeast.
Co-author M. S. Rawat warned that the region’s fragile geology, steep terrain and high frequency of natural hazards make it particularly vulnerable to environmental degradation and climate change impacts. He stressed the urgent need for “effective geospatial technology and action-oriented management strategies.”
Lead researcher Khrieketouno Belho highlighted that the findings contribute to global understanding of geo-environmental challenges in ecologically sensitive mountain regions.
Implications for India’s Himalayan Region
The study underscores the importance of evidence-based environmental monitoring and climate adaptation strategies across the broader Indian Himalayan landscape. By integrating geospatial technologies with environmental data, it offers a scalable framework for addressing ecological risks in vulnerable regions.
As climate pressures and human activity intensify, researchers emphasise that timely intervention and sustainable land-use policies will be crucial to safeguarding ecosystems and communities in India’s Northeast.