IDTechEx Report Unveils Rapid Electrification in Land, Sea, and Air Transport, Predicting a $1 Trillion Market by 2044
In a groundbreaking development, the global automotive sector is experiencing an electrifying transformation. Electric car sales have surged, with over 5.8 million units sold in the first half of 2023 across China, Europe, and the US. This shift towards electrification isn’t limited to cars; IDTechEx predicts the electric vehicle market for land, sea, and air will be worth over US$1 trillion by 2044, excluding traditional automotive sales.
IDTechEx’s report, “Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea, and Air 2024-2044,” offers invaluable insights into the historic performance and detailed forecasts for various electric vehicle markets. This includes cars, buses, vans, trucks, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, microcars, boats, ships, construction vehicles, trains, and electric air taxis (eVTOL).
Commercial Vehicles Electrification
Although commercial vehicles are electrified in smaller volumes compared to cars, they play a crucial role in reducing global emissions. Electric buses, which found an early market in China, are expected to see a global sales peak around 2040, driven by replacements in China and increased adoption in Europe. The electrification of light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleets is gaining traction, offering green credentials and a strong total cost of ownership (TCO) reduction for fleet operators. Major companies like Amazon and UPS are actively adopting electric LCVs in Europe.
Tesla, Daimler, VW, and Volvo are heavily investing in battery electric trucks, while Toyota and Hyundai are focusing on fuel cell trucks, potentially for long-haul applications. The electrification of truck fleets is accelerating, as evidenced by a 2.2-fold increase in electric truck sales in 2022 compared to 2021.
MicroEVs: Two-Wheelers, Three-Wheelers, and Microcars
In regions like China and India, two- and three-wheelers dominate personal mobility. These vehicles have typically relied on lead-acid batteries for electrification, offering a relatively cost-effective solution due to their small battery size and lower power requirements. Electric microcars are also gaining popularity, especially in crowded cities, thanks to their smaller range requirements.
Electric & Hybrid Marine
The electric boating market has expanded, particularly due to increased interest and leisure time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Low-power electric outboard categories offer advantages in terms of total cost of ownership and environmental benefits. However, higher battery prices remain a barrier for high-power outboard and inboard categories. Unlike the automotive market, the marine industry lacks strong governmental policy drivers.
The market for larger commercial electric and hybrid vessels has seen exponential growth, driven by lower prices for maritime batteries. Ferries are a common electric vessel type, capable of opportunity charging and serving short, consistent routes.
Electric Vehicles in Construction
Growing commitments to combat climate change and concerns about health and safety are driving the electrification of construction equipment. Early vehicle development has involved retrofitting, but the focus is shifting towards designing large electric construction vehicles from scratch to achieve economies of scale. The report anticipates that electric construction vehicles will become a US$154 billion market by 2044, primarily comprising low-volume, high-value vehicles.
Electric Air Taxis / eVTOL
The timeline for electric air taxis (eVTOLs) becoming commercial is dependent on certification processes, which are still in development. While many companies estimate a five-year certification process, uncertainties persist. Technological and funding challenges need to be addressed before production eVTOLs can be launched.
Outlook
The electrification wave is at varying stages across different vehicle categories, but the momentum is undeniable. The combined market for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, vans, microcars, trucks, marine, construction, buses, air taxis, and trains is predicted to reach just over US$1 trillion by 2044, according to IDTechEx’s report.
For more information about this IDTechEx report and to access downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/EV. Stay tuned for more electrifying developments in the world of electric vehicles!