Scientists warn that natural regrowth of forests alone cannot combat climate change
Researchers from various European universities who specialise in atmospheric and climatic science found that ceasing all human management of forested land would not be sufficient to reduce global carbon emissions.
The researchers modelled probable forest regrowth and subsequent carbon dioxide sequestration as a result of this scenario using mapping techniques and artificial intelligence tools, and their results were published in the journal Science.
Many large firms have made an effort in recent years to reduce their carbon footprint by taking part in carbon offset and credit programmes. These projects entail compensating others to engage in carbon-dioxide abatement activities, effectively balancing their own emissions.
Forest managers, especially those in charge of sizable territories like portions of the Amazon rainforest, have emerged as important clients in such partnerships. The experts contend that this strategy has a fundamental flaw—restoring land solely for forest use will not adequately address the problem of climate change.
To gain further insights into the consequences of ceasing forest usage, including cutting and other forms of forest management, the research team combined global maps depicting forestry biomass in both managed and natural forests. These maps served as a basis for understanding the current conditions. By employing machine learning applications, they analyzed historical forest growth patterns to predict potential new natural growth for forests worldwide.
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The team’s calculations indicated that if human forestry activities ceased, global forestry biomass would increase by approximately 44.1 petagrams of carbon. This would correspond to a 15% to 16% rise in carbon storage, roughly equivalent to four years’ worth of current CO2 emissions. Consequently, allowing forests to naturally regrow would prove insufficient in halting the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and the subsequent climate change.
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In addition to their findings, the scientists also determined that reforesting an area of 1.6 million square kilometers would be necessary to compensate for just one year’s worth of CO2 emissions. To put it into perspective, this land area would be roughly equivalent to the size of Alaska.
(Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add5878)
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