A first-of-its-kind study by IPE Global and Esri India warns that 8 in 10 Indian districts will face intensified climate extremes by 2030, urging immediate risk-based climate planning.
India’s Urban and Coastal Regions Face Escalating Climate Extremes by 2030, Says Landmark Study by IPE Global and Esri India
As India hurtles toward a hotter and wetter future, a groundbreaking study released by IPE Global in collaboration with Esri India has issued a stark warning: major cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are expected to experience a two-fold rise in heatwave days by 2030. This dramatic spike in heatwaves is predicted to trigger more frequent and erratic rainfall events—posing a dual climate threat to India’s urban infrastructure, agriculture, and economy.
The study, unveiled at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, reveals that India has already witnessed a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days over the last three decades, with a staggering 19-fold increase in just the last ten years (2014–2024). This intensification of heat is overlapping with rising instances of incessant, unseasonal rainfall, particularly during the monsoon (JJAS) months.
The key reason for this climate volatility, according to the study, lies in local climate drivers such as deforestation, land-use changes, urban expansion, and loss of natural buffers like mangroves and wetlands. These microclimatic changes are amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather patterns across India, especially in coastal and tier-I/tier-II cities.
“India is transitioning into a high-risk climate zone. Approximately 72% of its tier-I and tier-II cities will face growing heat stress, extreme rainfall, storm surges, and hailstorms,” said Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability at IPE Global.
By 2030, more than 80% of districts in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Uttarakhand will simultaneously face heat stress and rainfall extremes. The coastal districts will also experience prolonged summer-like discomfort during monsoon months, with 79% expected to suffer by 2040.
The study underlines the need for hyper-granular climate risk assessments, advocating for the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO)—a decision support system powered by Earth Observation data and predictive climate models. This observatory could help forecast localised climate events, enabling cities and states to take proactive measures.
Agendra Kumar, Managing Director at Esri India, stressed the role of spatial intelligence in climate planning:
“With GIS technology, we can transform climate data into actionable insights that strengthen disaster response, infrastructure planning, and long-term sustainability.”
The report further recommends the creation of heat-risk champions in district disaster management units and the design of climate risk financing instruments to help communities and businesses cope with extreme weather disruptions.
Ashwajit Singh, MD of IPE Global, highlighted the global relevance of the findings: “This study is a wake-up call for the Global South. India must lead by investing in innovative climate resilience strategies that secure both lives and livelihoods.”
With SB62, the upcoming UNFCCC climate negotiations in Bonn, on the horizon, the findings of this report provide an urgent reminder: India’s window to climate-proof its economy is narrowing. Risk-based, data-driven climate planning is no longer optional—it is essential.